文章摘要
王丹,赵平,李振,等.中小城镇多能源热电联供系统演化博弈分析[J].电力系统自动化,2019,43(21):71-79. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20190109001.
WANG Dan,ZHAO Ping,LI Zhen, et al.Evolutionary Game Analysis of Combined Heat and Power System in Small and Medium-sized Towns[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2019,43(21):71-79. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20190109001.
中小城镇多能源热电联供系统演化博弈分析
Evolutionary Game Analysis of Combined Heat and Power System in Small and Medium-sized Towns
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190109001
关键词: 热电联供  演化博弈  灰进化  中小城镇  传统能源  新能源
KeyWords: cogeneration system  evolutionary games  small and medium-sized cities  traditional energy  new energy
上网日期:2019-09-17
基金项目:中国大唐集团科技项目(KYJ2017-6000)
作者单位E-mail
王丹 西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院, 陕西省西安市 710055
中国大唐集团科学技术研究院有限公司, 北京市 100040 
wuzi6350629@163.com 
赵平 西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院, 陕西省西安市 710055  
李振 中国大唐集团科学技术研究院有限公司, 北京市 100040  
臧宁宁 中国大唐集团科学技术研究院有限公司, 北京市 100040  
摘要:
      中小城镇热电联供系统面临安全、经济和环保多目标如何协调平衡发展的问题。基于演化博弈理论,首先构建传统能源和新能源灰进化博弈模型,计算模型鞍点及最优稳态均衡区域,利用灰参数分析影响均衡演化的因素,促进多能源进行良性竞合发展。其次,基于此模型的合作演化,以政府监管部门、供能商和用户作为博弈的操控者,以安全可靠、高效经济和清洁环保为整体目标构建博弈模型,求取热电联供系统均衡可持续发展的策略,使得多目标策略实现整体最优。最后以某县城为例进行多能源合作和系统升级演化策略选择,可知支付总和不断降低代表整体目标不断趋近最优,为探究中小城镇清洁低碳、安全高效的发展热电联供提供借鉴。
Abstract:
      : The cogeneration system for small and medium-sized cities and towns faces the problem on how to balance the development of safety, economy and high efficiency and environmental protection. Based on the evolutionary game theory, first to construct the gray evolutionary game model of traditional energy and new energy, calculate the model saddle point and the optimal steady-state equilibrium region and analyze the factors affecting the equilibrium evolution by using gray parameters, to promote the development of multi-energy cohesive competition. Based on the evolutionary game theory, first to construct the gray evolutionary game model of traditional energy and new energy, calculate the model saddle point and the optimal steady-state equilibrium region and analyze the factors affecting the equilibrium evolution by using gray parameters, to promote the development of multi-energy cohesive competition. Based on the cooperative evolution of this model, the government regulators, energy suppliers and users, as the controllers of the game, build the game model with the goal of safety, reliability, high efficiency, economy and clean environment to obtain the balanced and sustainable development of the cogeneration system and to achieve the overall optimality of the multi-objective strategy. Finally, taking a county town as an example to carry out multi-energy cooperation evolution adjustment and system upgrade and evolution strategy selection and the total reduction of payment represents the overall goal of the trend is getting closer and optimal. It provides a basis for exploring the clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient development of cogeneration in small and medium-sized cities and towns.
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