文章摘要
朱晓荣,金绘民.考虑光伏功率相关性的随机潮流方法[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(5):34-40. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20170614013.
ZHU Xiaorong,JIN Huimin.Probabilistic Load Flow Method Considering Correlation of Photovoltaic Power[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(5):34-40. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20170614013.
考虑光伏功率相关性的随机潮流方法
Probabilistic Load Flow Method Considering Correlation of Photovoltaic Power
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170614013
关键词: 随机潮流  Pair Copula函数  拟蒙特卡洛  数字交错技术  Sobol序列
KeyWords: probabilistic load flow  Pair Copula function  quasi-Monte Carlo  digit interlacing technology  Sobol sequence
上网日期:2017-10-27
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
朱晓荣 新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学), 河北省保定市 071003 xiaorongzhu@ncepu.edu.cn 
金绘民 新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学), 河北省保定市 071003  
摘要:
      光伏发电属于典型的间歇性能源,且同一地区的光伏出力相关性显著。在含光伏电站的系统随机潮流中,综合考虑多维光伏功率的相关性对于分析光伏电站接入对电力系统的影响具有重要意义。文中提出了计及多个光伏电站出力相关性的随机潮流方法,该方法采用了Pair Copula函数对多个光伏电站的出力进行相关性建模,综合考虑了电站出力两两之间不同的相依结构。同时,将数字交错技术融入拟蒙特卡洛法中,对现有的随机潮流方法进行了改进,有效提高了算法的收敛速度。以美国德克萨斯州光伏电站基地的出力历史数据为例,分别在IEEE 30节点系统和IEEE 118节点系统中进行仿真计算,验证了所提方法的有效性。
Abstract:
      Photovoltaic(PV)power is a typical intermittent energy source, and shows appreciably correlative between adjacent PV power stations. For the probabilistic load flow in the system with PV power stations, the correlation of multiple PV powers is important for analyzing the influence of PV power on the power system. This paper proposes a probabilistic load flow method based on the correlation of multiple PV power stations. The output correlation of multiple PV power stations is modeled by the Pair Copula function, which considers the various dependency structures of pairs of PV power stations. Simultaneously, the existing probabilistic load flow method is improved, and the digit interlacing technology is integrated into quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method, which effectively improves the convergence rate. Taking the history data of PV power stations in Texas, USA for example, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the simulation in the IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems.
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