文章摘要
葛立青,刘青红,王建锋,等.计及样本容量合理性的风电功率预测考核算法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(18):118-123. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20161228007.
GE Liqing,LIU Qinghong,WANG Jianfeng, et al.Assessment Algorithm for Wind Power Prediction Considering Rationality of Sample Size[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(18):118-123. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20161228007.
计及样本容量合理性的风电功率预测考核算法
Assessment Algorithm for Wind Power Prediction Considering Rationality of Sample Size
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20161228007
关键词: 风功率预测  考核  样本统计  置信水平  准确率
KeyWords: wind power prediction  assessment  sample statistics  confidence level  accuracy
上网日期:2017-07-14
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
葛立青 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司, 江苏省南京市 211102 gelq@nrec.com 
刘青红 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司, 江苏省南京市 211102  
王建锋 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司, 江苏省南京市 211102  
章叶青 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司, 江苏省南京市 211102  
王言国 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司, 江苏省南京市 211102  
张衡 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司, 江苏省南京市 211102  
摘要:
      在风功率预测误差服从正态分布的基础上,首先,提出了在给定置信水平、最大允许误差下最小样本容量的计算方法,以及在给定误差范围、样本容量下估计值置信水平的计算方法。其次,针对典型显著性水平、误差范围进行分析,论证了当样本容量较小时,样本统计指标置信水平低,无法代表总体指标。最后,提出了计及样本容量合理性的日前风电功率预测准确率考核算法,实际算例表明,所提考核算法更科学合理,避免了不合理的考核罚款。
Abstract:
      On the basis that the wind power prediction error obeys normal distribution, an algorithm for calculating the minimum sample size with the given confidence level and maximum permissible error is proposed, as is a method of computing the confidence level under the condition of the given error range and sample size. Then an analysis is carried out according to the typical significance level and the error range. It is demonstrated that the statistical confidence level of the sample is low when the sample size is small, which cannot represent the overall data. Finally, an assessment algorithm for wind power prediction is proposed by taking into account the rationality of sample size of the day-ahead wind power prediction accuracy rate. The actual examples show that the proposed method is more scientific and reasonable, avoiding unreasonable assessment fines.
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