文章摘要
张悦,申彦波,石广玉.面向光热发电的太阳能短期预报技术[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(19):158-167. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20160526001.
ZHANG Yue,SHEN Yanbo,SHI Guangyu.Short-term Forecasting Technology of Solar Energy for Concentrating Solar Power[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(19):158-167. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20160526001.
面向光热发电的太阳能短期预报技术
Short-term Forecasting Technology of Solar Energy for Concentrating Solar Power
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160526001
关键词: 太阳能预报  光热发电  太阳能热发电  法向直接辐射  直接辐射  数值天气预报
KeyWords: solar energy forecasting  concentrating solar power  solar thermal power generation  direct normal irradiance  direct radiation  numerical weather prediction
上网日期:2016-08-22
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目(41130104);国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590875)
作者单位E-mail
张悦 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京市 100029; 中国科学院大学, 北京市 100049 yz@mail.iap.ac.cn 
申彦波 中国气象局公共气象服务中心, 北京市 100081  
石广玉 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京市 100029  
摘要:
      随着全球太阳能行业的迅猛发展,越来越多的太阳能以光热发电的形式被电网吸纳,准确地预报未来几天的法向直接辐射已成为光热项目并网和现场运行维护的基础。文中介绍了法向直接辐射的定义、国内电力工业标准、法向直接辐射短期预报方法、影响短期预报精度的要素和提高短期预报精度的方法,回顾了国内最新的研究进展,提出了当前研究中存在的问题,并对未来的研究趋势做了展望,以期对“十三五”期间太阳能热发电行业的发展提供参考。
Abstract:
      Along with the rapid development of solar energy industry, more and more solar energy is integrated into electricity grid in the form of concentrating solar power(CSP). Forecasting direct normal irradiance(DNI)accurately several days ahead has become the foundation for solar energy integration as well as operation and maintenance of a CSP power plant. Treated in the paper are the definition of DNI, the electric power industry standards in China, methodology of short-term DNI forecasting, influence factors of forecast accuracy, approaches to accuracy improvement, and most recent advances of research in the nation. Meanwhile, problems in current researches are presented and future research and trends are envisioned for reference by the development of CSP in the “13th five-year plan” period. This work is supported by State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 41130104)and Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 41590875).
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