文章摘要
胡春璇,黄杰,薛禹胜,等.能源转型碳减排效益的货币价值化方法[J].电力系统自动化. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20190506002.
HU Chunxuan,HUANG Jie,XUE Yusheng, et al.Monetary Evaluation Methods for Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits of Energy Transition[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20190506002.
能源转型碳减排效益的货币价值化方法
Monetary Evaluation Methods for Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits of Energy Transition
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190506002
关键词: 能源转型  碳排放  成本效益  货币价值化  综合评估模型
KeyWords: energy transition  carbon emission  cost benefit  monetary evaluation  integrated analysis model
上网日期:2019-08-13
基金项目:
作者单位E-mail
胡春璇 南京师范大学南瑞电气与自动化学院南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司) hcx_njnuedu@126.com 
黄杰 南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司) huangjie1@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn 
薛禹胜 南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司) xueyusheng@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn 
李天然 南京师范大学南瑞电气与自动化学院 litianran@njnu.edu.cn 
宋晓芳 南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司) songxiaofang@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn 
赖业宁 南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司) laiyening@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn 
摘要:
      气候变化已成为人类可持续发展面临的核心挑战,低碳能源转型已成为减缓气候变化的关键举措。碳减排是能源转型的关键效益之一,若能对其进行货币价值化评估,将有助于在统一货币量纲下,对不同能源转型目标和路径进行成本效益分析。本文分析了国际主流碳排放货币价值化评估方法,认为碳排放社会损失更适用于长期能源转型问题的评估。进而,对碳排放社会损失评估模型中社会经济、气候变化、损失评估、结果折现各子模块进行了详细介绍,并明晰了评估模型的不确定性来源。最后,选择典型评估模型对中国碳排放社会损失进行了试算,并对折现率这一关键参数进行了灵敏度分析,为能源转型方案碳减排效益货币价值化提供了评估思路。
Abstract:
      Climate change has become a core challenge for human sustainable development, and low-carbon energy transition has become a key measure to mitigate climate change. Carbon emission reduction is one of the key benefits of energy transition. If the carbon emission reduction benefit can be evaluated monetarily, then cost-benefit analysis of alternative energy transition goals and paths under the unified currency dimension can be realized. This paper analyzes the mainstream carbon emission monetary evaluation method in detail, and proposes the social cost of carbon (SCC) as a more suitable method for the long-term energy transition problems. Furthermore, the sub-modules of SCC assessment are elaborated, including social economy, climate change, damage assessment and discounting modules, and the sources of evaluation uncertainty are discussed. Finally, a typical SCC assessment model is selected to calculate the country level SCC (CSCC) in China, and sensitivity analysis of key parameter (the discount rate) is provided. The discussion and elaboration in this paper can provide a carbon emission reduction benefit evaluation methodology for the cost benefit analysis of alternative energy transition plans.
查看全文   查看附录   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器