文章摘要
周安平,杨明,赵斌,等.电力系统运行调度中的高阶不确定性及其对策评述[J].电力系统自动化. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180108002.
zhou anping,yang ming,赵斌, et al.A Review of Higher-Order Uncertainty and Corresponding Dispatch Strategies for Power System Operations[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20180108002.
电力系统运行调度中的高阶不确定性及其对策评述
A Review of Higher-Order Uncertainty and Corresponding Dispatch Strategies for Power System Operations
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20180108002
关键词: 经济调度  高阶不确定性  随机规划  鲁棒优化  随机变量
KeyWords: economic dispatch  higher-order uncertainty  stochastic programming  robust optimization  random variable
上网日期:2018-05-11
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目;山东省重点研发计划;山东大学基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目
作者单位E-mail
周安平 电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室山东大学 zhouanping521@163.com 
杨明 电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室山东大学 myang@sdu.edu.cn 
赵斌 电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室山东大学 zhaobinjn312@163.com 
韩学山 电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室山东大学 xshan@sdu.edu.cn 
刘增训 国家电网有限公司北京市 西城区 100031 zengxunliu@sgcc.com.cn 
摘要:
      电力系统运行中源、网、荷不确定性的增强使得确定性调度方法的合理性前提在当今电力系统中越来越难以满足,不确定性的预测、分析、决策方法得到了快速地发展。然而,作为不确定运行条件下电网调度决策的基础,源、网、荷不确定性的统计规律自身却也存在着难以避免的不确定性,这种高阶不确定性直接影响着各类应对不确定性调度决策方法的有效性,不可简单加以忽略。近来,已有研究开始关注这种调度中存在的高阶不确定性问题,提出了围绕着不确定概率分布的信息获取方法与优化调度方法。在此背景下,本文将围绕着高阶不确定性这一线索,对目前受到关注的新能源发电、负荷响应能力以及发输电设备运行可靠性中存在的高阶不确定性问题进行分析,介绍已有的针对高阶不确定性问题的分析与决策方法,并进行简要评述。最后,文章对这一研究领域中亟待解决的问题及未来的发展方向进行了总结与展望。
Abstract:
      The increase of source/network/load uncertainties in power system operations makes the prerequisites of deterministic dispatch methods more and more difficult to satisfy in current power systems. Prediction, analysis and decision-making methods under uncertainty have been developed rapidly. However, as the basis of dispatch in uncertain environment, the statistical rules of the source/network/load are still uncertain for themselves, which directly affect the effectiveness of the decision-making methods and cannot be ignored simply. Recently, researchers begin to focus on the higher-order uncertainty problems and put forward information acquisition methods and optimal dispatch methods in view of the uncertain probability distributions. In this context, this paper concentrates on the clue of the higher-order uncertainty, analyzes the higher-order uncertainty problems existing in renewable generation, load response capacity and power generation/transmission equipment, introduces the existing analysis and decision-making methods under higher-order uncertainty and made a brief comment. Finally, the key problems and future research directions in this field are summarized and analyzed.
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