文章摘要
周特军,陆佳政,吴传平,等.湖南电网山火告警风险及故障时间间隔分布规律[J].电力系统自动化. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20170920020.
ZHOU Te-jun,LUJia-zheng,WU Chuan-ping, et al.Distribution Law of Wildfire Warning and Waiting Time of Faults for Hunan Power Grid[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20170920020.
湖南电网山火告警风险及故障时间间隔分布规律
Distribution Law of Wildfire Warning and Waiting Time of Faults for Hunan Power Grid
DOI:10.7500/AEPS20170920020
关键词: 输电线路  自然灾害  时间间隔  指数分布  幂率分布  重现期  丛集性
KeyWords: transmission line  natural hazards  waiting time  exponential distribution  power-law distribution  return period  time- clustering characteristics
上网日期:2018-04-10
基金项目:国家重点研发计划,国家电力公司科技项目
作者单位E-mail
周特军 电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室 zhoutejun1988@126.com 
陆佳政 电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室 lujz1969@163.com 
吴传平 电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室 504074480@qq.com 
李波 电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室 763196563@qq.com 
刘毓 电网输变电设备防灾减灾国家重点实验室 785572925@qq.com 
摘要:
      输电线路故障规律的研究对电网的运行维护具有重要的实际意义。利用湖南电网输电线路山火广域监测数据和输电线路故障数据,对输电线路山火告警风险和输电线路故障的时间丛集性特征开展了研究,发现了输电线路山火告警风险的“日告警数—频率”满足幂律关系,验证了包含所有触发因素的输电线路故障“时间间隔—频率”累积概率分布满足指数关系,基于Fano因子和Allan因子发现输电线路故障时间序列具有自相似性;进一步分析获得山火、雷击、冰灾等不同故障原因的输电线路故障“时间间隔—频率”累积概率分布满足分段幂律关系,确定了输电线路故障存在两个时间尺度的动力学过程。本文研究成果可为输电线路山火告警风险和输电线路故障的预测预报提供理论依据。
Abstract:
      Analysis of temporal law of wildfire warning and faults for transmission lines is fundamental for operation and maintenance of power grid. The time clustering characteristic of wildfire warnings recorded by wildfire monitor and early-warning system and faults data for transmission line of Hunan power grid are investigated. Then the probability distribution of the number of wildfire warnings per day follows a power law. Waiting times between transmission line faults were suggested to be exponential distribution. The self-similarity of faults sequences for transmission lines was certificated by means of Allan factor and Fano factor method. Further analysis shows that Time interval – frequency for transmission line faults caused by different natural hazards follows a power law distribution which is L-shaped power law curve. The two time scales dynamical properties of transmission line faults was analyzed. This research can provide reference for prediction of wildfire warning and faults of transmission line caused by different factors.
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