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融合多维数据特征动态匹配与可解释性深度学习的电力负荷预测方法
作者:
作者单位:

1.湖南大学电气与信息工程学院;2.长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院;3.国网湖南省电力有限公司电力科学研究院

摘要:

基于数据驱动的负荷预测在新型电力系统中发挥重要作用。配电台区负荷特征多样,且影响因素复杂,传统方法预测结果可解释性差。为此,本文提出一种考虑配电网数据集特征多维视角的深度学习预测可解释性方法。首先,依据深度学习模型预测结果进行可解释性分析,其次,结合相似性实验和消融实验,以内部视角验证数据集规模和季节性对架构预测性能的影响。在此基础上,提出一种负荷离散度可视化及其量化方法,以外部视角验证数据集离散度对模型预测性能的影响。最后,综合内外视角的数据集特性,提出一种“动态匹配”的数据集优化策略,通过集成数据季节性和离散度的特征动态选择数据库中的训练样本,提高样本的代表性。测试结果表明,所提方法能捕捉提高架构预测准确性的关键数据,减少数据收集的时间成本,亦能提升提高使用者对预测结果的可信度。

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基金项目:

国网湖南省电力有限公司科技项目(5216A524001V)

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作者简介:


An Explainable Deep Learning Method for Power Load Forecasting with Dynamic Matching Based on Multidimensional Dataset Features
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Affiliation:

Abstract:

Data-driven load forecasting plays an important role in modern power systems. Due to the diversity of load characteristics in distribution transformer areas and the complexity of influencing factors, the prediction results of traditional methods lack interpretability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a deep learning interpretability method that considers the multidimensional characteristics of distribution network datasets. First, interpretability analysis is performed based on the prediction results of deep learning models. Then, similarity experiments and ablation studies are conducted from an internal perspective to examine the influence of dataset size and seasonality on the model’s forecasting performance. On this basis, a visualization and quantification method for load dispersion is proposed to verify, from an external perspective, the impact of dataset dispersion on model forecasting performance. Finally, by integrating dataset characteristics from both internal and external perspectives, a “dynamic matching” dataset optimization strategy is proposed. This strategy dynamically selects training samples from the database based on seasonal and dispersion features, thereby improving the representativeness of the samples. Test results show that the proposed method can identify key data that improve the prediction accuracy of the model, reduce the time cost of data collection, and enhance users’ trust in the forecasting results.

Keywords:

Foundation:
State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company Limited(5216A524001V)
引用本文
[1]朱泓宇,彭衍建,李勇,等.融合多维数据特征动态匹配与可解释性深度学习的电力负荷预测方法[J/OL].电力系统自动化,http://doi. org/10.7500/AEPS20250814008.
ZHU Hongyu, Peng Yanjian, LI Yong, et al. An Explainable Deep Learning Method for Power Load Forecasting with Dynamic Matching Based on Multidimensional Dataset Features[J/OL]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, http://doi. org/10.7500/AEPS20250814008.
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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-14
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-11
  • 录用日期:2026-02-11
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