1.中国电力科学研究院有限公司(南京),江苏省南京市 210003;2.中国电力企业联合会,北京市100761;3.中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市100192;4.国网甘肃省电力公司,甘肃省兰州市 730046
随着新能源电量占比不断增加,日内电力平衡难度增大, 超短期预测误差较大仍是调度员工作的核心难题。强化学习与随机优化混合驱动的前瞻调度通过多场景推演与时序滚动优化,有效提升了日内调度方案对于不确定场景的适应性,并已在实际省级电网实现上线运行。面向工程应用需求,文中首先阐述了前瞻调度的决策模式与技术挑战。然后,提出了电网海量运行场景生成与平衡态势评估、基于强化学习的多场景智能推演、计及省内调节与省间互济协同的前瞻决策3个实用化关键技术,设计了“预测—推演—决策”序贯执行的软件功能架构,形成了模型数据交互驱动的前瞻调度技术体系。最后,以甘肃电网实际运行数据进行测试验证,对前瞻调度软件的计算性能及在“保供应、促消纳”困难场景下对电网平衡能力的提升效果进行了分析。
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFB2403400)。
1.China Electric Power Research Institute (Nanjing), Nanjing 210003, China;2.China Electricity Council, Beijing100761, China;3.China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China;4.State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company, Lanzhou 730046, China
With the increasing proportion of integrated renewable energy, the significant errors in ultra-short-term forecasting remain a core challenge for dispatchers, making intra-day power balance more difficult. The hybrid look-ahead dispatch framework driven by reinforcement learning and stochastic optimization improves the adaptability of intra-day dispatch plans to uncertain scenarios through multi-scenario simulation and rolling-horizon optimization, and has been implemented in an actual provincial power grid. To meet engineering application requirements, this paper first elaborates on the decision-making paradigm and technical challenges of look-ahead dispatch. Subsequently, three practical key technologies are proposed: 1) massive power grid operational scenario generation within look-ahead horizon and balance assessment, 2) reinforcement learning-based intelligent multi-scenario simulation, 3) look-ahead decision-making considering both intra-provincial regulation and inter-provincial trading. Then, a sequential “forecast-simulation-decision” software architecture is designed and a model-data interactive-driven look-ahead dispatch technology framework is established. Finally, the test using operation data from Gansu Power Grid in China demonstrates the computational efficiency of the look-ahead dispatch software and analyzes its enhancement effects on power balancing capabilities under challenging scenarios of “ensuring supply security and promoting renewable energy accommodation”.
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