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计及防灾救灾功效的电力系统因灾运行碳排增加及责任分担
作者:
作者单位:

1.杭州电子科技大学自动化学院(人工智能学院),浙江省杭州市 310018;2.国网电力科学研究院有限公司(南瑞集团有限公司),江苏省南京市 211106

摘要:

发电厂和电网因自然灾害受损或功能失效导致电力系统运行中产生额外增加的碳排放,被定义为电力系统因灾运行碳排增加量(CEI-OD)。忽视频发自然灾害的CEI-OD累计效应将高估新型电力系统的减碳效果,影响全球的减碳进程。因此,如何计算CEI-OD并确定其责任分担,成为一个重要课题。首先,提出电力系统运行方式等效碳排因子(CEEF),基于CEEF计算电力系统运行方式改变时的CEI-OD。其次,以防灾设计灾害强度和相应的最大允许抢修时间两个指标构建防灾救灾措施功效模型。同时,提出元件的防灾过失和抢修过失判据,并据此提出将CEI-OD分解为过失追究和无过失分摊的理论和计算方法。然后,针对无过失分摊部分的共同分摊,提出了一种改进的Aumann-Shapely法,较好地解决了高碳发电强制替代因灾受阻的低碳发电所导致的碳排放增量分摊不公问题。最后,通过相关案例验证了所提方法的可行性。

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基金项目:

南瑞集团有限公司科技项目:“信息-物理-社会元素的交互及协调技术”(GF-GFWD-210338)。

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Carbon Emission Increase of Power System Operation due to Nature Disaster and Its Obligation Allocation Considering Disaster Prevention and Recovery Effect
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Abstract:

The additional carbon emission generated during the operation of the power system due to damage or functional failure of power plants and power grids caused by natural disasters is defined as the carbon emission increase of power system operation due to natural disaster (CEI-OD). Neglecting the cumulative effects of CEI-OD from frequent natural disasters will overestimate the carbon reduction effectiveness of new power systems and affect global decarbonization process. Therefore, calculating CEI-OD and determining its obligation allocation has become an important issue. First, the carbon emission equivalent factor (CEEF) for power system operation modes is proposed, and CEI-OD is calculated based on CEEF when the power system operation mode changes. Secondly, a disaster prevention and recovery measure effect model is constructed using two indicators: the intensity of designed disaster prevention and the corresponding maximum allowable repair time. Simultaneously, the criteria for component disaster prevention negligence and repair negligence are proposed, and based on these, a theory and calculation method for decomposing CEI-OD into accountability allocation and no-fault sharing are introduced. Then, for the collective sharing of the no-fault portion, an improved Aumann-Shapley method is proposed, which effectively addresses the unfair allocation of carbon emission increase resulting from high-carbon power generation forcibly replacing disaster-affected low-carbon power generation. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is validated through relevant cases.

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Foundation:
This work is supported by NARI Group Corporation (No. GF-GFWD-210338).
引用本文
[1]章坚民,赵晓煦,薛禹胜,等.计及防灾救灾功效的电力系统因灾运行碳排增加及责任分担[J/OL].电力系统自动化,http://doi. org/10.7500/AEPS20241227004.
ZHANG Jianmin, ZHAO Xiaoxu, XUE Yusheng, et al. Carbon Emission Increase of Power System Operation due to Nature Disaster and Its Obligation Allocation Considering Disaster Prevention and Recovery Effect[J/OL]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, http://doi. org/10.7500/AEPS20241227004.
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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-20
  • 录用日期:2025-03-03
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-02
  • 出版日期: