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基于概率预测的电网静态安全运行风险评估及主动调控策略
作者:
作者单位:

1.国家电网公司华中分部,湖北省武汉市 430077;2.武汉大学电气与自动化学院,湖北省武汉市 430072

摘要:

近年来,随着电网互联层级和规模的高速发展以及新能源、电力电子设备的大规模接入,电力系统的不确定性和调控需求都在持续增加。为解决当前电网调度控制方式基于联络线越限等经验特征量异常触发、缺乏主动性和预见性调控手段的问题,提出了一种基于概率预测的电网安全运行风险评估及主动调控方法。首先,构建了基于长短期记忆网络和支持向量机的滚动概率预测模型。然后,从充裕度的角度建立了常见风险事件的严重度函数,从而实现对关键元件的越限概率预测,并计算得到量化风险以形成触发机制,实现电力系统面对风险事件的主动调控。最后,在IEEE 39节点系统上结合中国某省电网的实际负荷数据进行仿真,计算结果验证了所提方法和模型能够实现提前主动调控,有效规避安全运行风险。

关键词:

基金项目:

国家电网公司科技项目(SGHZ0000DKJS2100256)。

通信作者:

作者简介:

徐浩(1988—),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向:电网调度运行与风险预警防控技术。E-mail:whuxuhao@163.com
姜新雄(1997—),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向:人工智能应用、概率预警。E-mail:jiangxinxiong@whu.edu.cn
刘志成(1981—),男,硕士,高级工程师,主要研究方向:电力系统调度运行控制技术。E-mail:liu_zhch318@126.com
廖思阳(1989—),男,通信作者,博士,副研究员,主要研究方向:电力系统运行与控制、工业负荷建模与控制。E-mail:liaosiyang@whu.edu.cn


Probability Prediction Based Risk Assessment and Proactive Regulation and Control Strategy for Static Operation Safety of Power Grid
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Central China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Wuhan 430077, China;2.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Abstract:

In recent years, the level and scale of power grid interconnection have developed rapidly, and the uncertainty and the regulation and control requirement of the power system keep increasing with the large-scale access of new energy and power electronic equipment. The current power grid regulation and control method has the problems such as relying on the abnormal triggering of the experience characteristic quantity and the lack of the regulation and control means for proactivity and predictability based on the out-of-limit of the tie line. In order to solve the problems, a method of risk assessment and proactive regulation and control is proposed for power grid operation safety based on probability prediction. Firstly, a rolling probability prediction model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) network and support vector machine (SVM) is constructed. Then, the severity function of common risk events is established from the perspective of sufficiency to achieve the over-limit probability prediction of key elements. Also, the quantitative risk is calculated to form a trigger mechanism so that the proactive regulation and control of the power system to risk events is realized. Finally, a simulation is carried out on the IEEE 39-bus system combined with the actual load data of a certain provincial power grid in China. The calculation results verify that the proposed method and model can realize the proactive regulation and control in advance and effectively avoid the risks of safe operation.

Keywords:

Foundation:
This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China (No. SGHZ0000DKJS2100256).
引用本文
[1]徐浩,姜新雄,刘志成,等.基于概率预测的电网静态安全运行风险评估及主动调控策略[J].电力系统自动化,2022,46(1):182-191. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20201218003.
XU Hao, JIANG Xinxiong, LIU Zhicheng, et al. Probability Prediction Based Risk Assessment and Proactive Regulation and Control Strategy for Static Operation Safety of Power Grid[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(1):182-191. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20201218003.
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  • 收稿日期:2020-12-18
  • 最后修改日期:2021-05-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-05
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