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基于混合半云模型的相关性风速及风电场并网可靠性分析
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作者单位:

南京理工大学自动化学院,江苏省南京市 210094

摘要:

针对现有相关矩阵法生成相关性风速的不足,文中引入风速的混合半云模型,改进风速的抽样过程。采用蒙特卡洛抽样生成具有相关性的风速样本,通过历史风速与模型结果的对比表明,所提出的改进相关矩阵法生成的风速间的相关系数与真实数据更为接近。然后,选取不同相关系数对风电场出力和并网可靠性进行分析,分析结果表明相关系数对风电场出力和可靠性有较大影响,考虑风速相关性可以得到对风电场出力和并网可靠性更加准确的分析。

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作者简介:

蒋海峰(1978—),男,通信作者,博士,讲师,硕士生导师,主要研究方向:电力系统及其自动化。E-mail:jianghaifeng@njust.edu.cn
张曼(1995—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:电力系统分析。E-mail:zhman30@163.com


Analysis on Correlation-based Wind Speed Based on Mixed Half-cloud Model and Grid-connection Reliability of Wind Farm
Author:
Affiliation:

School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China

Abstract:

Aiming at the deficiency of correlation-based wind speed generated by the existing correlation matrix method, a mixed half-cloud model of wind speed is introduced in this paper to improve the sampling process of wind speed. The Monte Carlo sampling is used to generate correlation-based wind speed samples. Comparison between historical wind speed and model results shows that the correlation coefficient between the wind speeds generated by the proposed improved correlation matrix method is more similar to the real data. Then, different correlation coefficients are selected to analyze the wind farm output and grid connection reliability, the results show that the correlation coefficient has great impact on the wind farm output and reliability. By considering the correlation of wind speed, the more accurate analysis on wind farm output and connection reliability can be obtained.

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引用本文
[1]蒋海峰,张曼.基于混合半云模型的相关性风速及风电场并网可靠性分析[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(22):127-133. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190916001.
JIANG Haifeng, ZHANG Man. Analysis on Correlation-based Wind Speed Based on Mixed Half-cloud Model and Grid-connection Reliability of Wind Farm[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2020, 44(22):127-133. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190916001.
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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-16
  • 最后修改日期:2020-01-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-11-18
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