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能源转型碳减排效益的货币价值化评估
作者:
作者单位:

1.南京师范大学南瑞电气与自动化学院,江苏省南京市 210023;2.南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏省南京市 211106

作者简介:

胡春璇(1995—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:碳市场与电力市场。E-mail:hcx_njnuedu@126.com
黄杰(1983—),男,通信作者,博士,高级工程师,主要研究方向:碳排放及碳市场风险防控。E-mail:huangjie1@ sgepri.sgcc.com.cn
薛禹胜(1941—),男,中国工程院院士,国网电力科学研究院名誉院长,博士生导师,主要研究方向:电力系统自动化。E-mail:xueyusheng@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家电网公司科技项目“电力转型对能源转型主动支撑——以青海省为例” ; 江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目 KYCX19_0804 国家电网公司科技项目“电力转型对能源转型主动支撑——以青海省为例”;江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(KYCX19_0804)。


Monetary Value Evaluation for Carbon Emission Reduction Benefit of Energy Transition
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of NARI Electric and Automation, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;2.NARI Group Corporation (State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, China

Fund Project:

State Grid Corporation of China and Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province KYCX19_0804 This work is supported by State Grid Corporation of China and Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (No. KYCX19_0804).

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    摘要:

    气候变化已成为人类可持续发展面临的核心挑战,低碳能源转型已成为减缓气候变化的关键举措。碳减排是能源转型的关键效益之一,若能对其进行货币价值化评估,将有助于在统一货币量纲下,对不同能源转型目标和路径进行成本效益分析。分析了国际主流碳排放货币价值化评估方法,认为碳排放社会损失更适用于长期能源转型问题的评估。进而,对碳排放社会损失评估模型中社会经济、气候变化、损失评估、结果折现各子模块进行了详细介绍,并明晰了评估模型的不确定性来源。最后,选择典型评估模型对中国碳排放社会损失进行了试算,并对折现率这一关键参数进行了灵敏度分析,为能源转型方案碳减排效益货币价值化提供了评估思路。

    Abstract:

    Climate change has become a core challenge for human sustainable development, and low-carbon energy transition has become a key measure to mitigate climate change. Carbon emission reduction is one of the key benefits of energy transition. If the carbon emission reduction benefit can be evaluated monetarily, the cost-benefit analysis of alternative energy transition goals and paths with the unified currency dimension can be realized. This paper analyzes the mainstream monetary value evaluation method of carbon emission in detail, and proposes the social cost of carbon (SCC) as a more suitable method for the long-term energy transition problems. Furthermore, the sub-modules of SCC assessment are elaborated, including social economy, climate change, damage assessment and discounting modules, and the uncertainty sources of evaluation model are discussed. Finally, a typical SCC assessment model is chosen to calculate the country level SCC (CSCC) in China, and the sensitivity analysis of the key parameter (the discount rate) is provided, which can provide an evaluation methodology of carbon emission reduction benefit for the cost benefit analysis of alternative energy transition plans.

    表 1 不同RCP情景的关键特征Table 1 Key features of different RCP scenarios
    表 4 五种情景下中国地区SCC中值(折现率5%)Table 4 The median value of SCC in China under five scenarios (D=5%)
    图 SSP1-RCP6.0情景下评估结果(可变折现率)Fig. Evaluation results under SSP1-RCP6.0(growth adjusted discounting)
    图1 不同SSP情景适应/缓解气候变化的差异Fig.1 Climate change adaptation/mitigation differences with different SSPs
    表 3 五种情景下中国地区SCC中值(折现率3%)Table 3 The median value of SCC in China under five scenarios (D=3%)
    表 5 五种情景下中国地区SCC中值(可变折现率)Table 5 The median value of SCC in China under five scenarios (growth adjusted discounting)
    表 2 五种情景下中国地区SCC中值(折现率2.5%)Table 2 The median value of SCC in China under five scenarios (D=2.5%)
    图 全球边际碳减排成本曲线Fig. Global marginal carbon abatement cost curve
    图 碳排放社会损失计算原理与步骤Fig. Principles and procedures for calculating the social cost of carbon emissions
    图 SSP与RCP不同情景的全球平均总辐射强度变化Fig. Global average radiative forcing change under different SSPs and RCPs
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引用本文

胡春璇,黄杰,薛禹胜,等.能源转型碳减排效益的货币价值化评估[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(1):29-34. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190506002.
HU Chunxuan,HUANG Jie,XUE Yusheng,et al.Monetary Value Evaluation for Carbon Emission Reduction Benefit of Energy Transition[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2020,44(1):29-34. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190506002.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-06
  • 最后修改日期:2019-07-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-01-15
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