1. 上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院, 上海市 200240; 2. 国网上海市电力公司电力科学研究院, 上海市 200090
1. School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2. Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200090, China
Aiming at the situation of scale prediction and independent charging load prediction of electric vehicles(EVs)in current researches, a medium- and long-term charging load prediction model for private EVs is proposed. Firstly, this paper improves the dynamic model of the medium- and long-term ownership prediction of private electric vehicles using Bass model with innovation, imitation and price effect of users for private EVs. Secondly, the daily travel behavior is described based on trip chain model. Probabilistic model is established to describe the starting and stopping time, daily mileage and residence time of users for private cars. Monte Carlo method is adopted to simulate the behavior of massive private electric vehicles. Finally, with realistic geographical information and vehicle travel data of Shanghai, scale prediction and behavior simulation of private EVs are conducted alternately. Various factors influencing spatial and temporal distribution of charging load in the coming years are analyzed, including media promotion about electric vehicle, subsidies for purchasing electric vehicles, charging habits of car owner and charging control strategy.
YU Haidong, ZHANG Yan,PAN Aiqiang.Medium- and Long-term Evolution Model of Charging Load for Private Electric Vehicle[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2019,43(21):80-87. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190221003.