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考虑预测误差的风电场电量投标博弈分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.南方电网科学研究院,广东省广州市 510663;2.西南交通大学电气工程学院,四川省成都市 610031

作者简介:

邹金(1989—),男,通信作者,博士,工程师,主要研究方向:可再生能源、电力市场。E-mail:zoujin@csg.cn
袁爽(1994—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:可再生能源、电力市场。
禤培正(1990—),男,工程师,主要研究方向:新能源技术和电力市场。

通讯作者:

基金项目:

中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(ZBKJXM20180064)。


Game Analysis of Energy Bidding for Wind Farms Considering Forecasting Error
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Electric Power Research Institute, China Southern Power Grid Company Limited, Guangzhou 510663, China;2.College of Electrical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China

Fund Project:

This work is supported by China Southern Power Grid Company Limited (No. ZBKJXM20180064).

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    摘要:

    随着电力市场化改革的深入发展,风电等新能源需要逐步与火电等其他传统电源进行竞争,同时风电等新能源出力的不确定性也增加了其在市场上博弈的复杂性。文中针对现货市场中风电场采用电量投标模式下的利益博弈问题,考虑风电出力的不确定性及预测误差,基于日前、日内2级现货市场出清模型,推导了风电场在不同投标组合情形下市场博弈均衡点的解析式,并采用实际风电出力及预测数据进行了仿真验证。对市场均衡下的风电投标结果进行分析,结果表明:在风电场电量投标模式下,风电场的博弈策略与风电出力预测值及预测误差有关,风电场可通过提高预测精度降低其投标收益风险;同时,此投标模式下风电场的投标策略出现了日前电量持留,加剧了风电场的投机行为,增加了市场运行风险。

    Abstract:

    With the in-depth development of power market reform in China, renewable energy sources such as wind power need to compete with traditional power sources such as thermal power, while the uncertainty of renewable energy sources greatly increases their gaming difficulty in the market. By focusing on the benefit gaming problem of wind farms with energy bidding mode and considering the uncertainty and forecasting error of wind power, the analytical formula of the market gaming equilibrium is deduced with different bidding combinations of wind farms based on the day-ahead and intraday two-stage spot market model, and actual wind power output and forecasting data are used for market simulation to verify the formula. The wind power bidding results with market equilibrium are analyzed. The results show that optimal bidding strategy of wind farms with energy bidding mode is related to their wind power forecasting value as well as forecast error, and wind farms can reduce the risk of bidding revenue by improving forecasting accuracy. Meanwhile, the bidding strategy of wind farms appears energy withholding in the day-ahead market, which aggravates the speculative behavior of wind farms and increases the risk of market operation.

    表 1 火电机组报价参数Table 1 Bidding parameters for thermal power units
    图1 风电场投标收益验证Fig.1 Verification of wind farm bidding revenues
    图2 风电场出力实测及日前预测曲线Fig.2 Measured and day-ahead forecast curves of wind farm output
    图3 风电场有无采用投标策略的收益仿真结果对比Fig.3 Simulation results comparison of wind farm revenues with or without bidding strategy
    图4 风电平均预测误差随风电出力变化关系Fig.4 Relationship between average forecasting error of wind power and wind power output
    图5 多风电场独立投标下的最优投标曲线Fig.5 Optimal bidding curves with independentbidding of wind farms
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引用本文

邹金,袁爽,禤培正,等.考虑预测误差的风电场电量投标博弈分析[J].电力系统自动化,2020,44(1):219-225. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190214006.
ZOU Jin,YUAN Shuang,XUAN Peizheng,et al.Game Analysis of Energy Bidding for Wind Farms Considering Forecasting Error[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2020,44(1):219-225. DOI:10.7500/AEPS20190214006.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-02-14
  • 最后修改日期:2019-09-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-01-04
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